Asteroid 2024 YR4: ‘City Killer’ Now Has Higher Chance of Hitting Earth | NASA News

Asteroid with 3.1% Risk of Impact Raised Awareness, But No Immediate Threat

NASA is closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has raised concern due to a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. This marks the highest risk of impact ever recorded by modern forecasting, though experts reassure the public that there is no immediate cause for alarm.

The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2023, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. Initial assessments place its size between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide. Despite its relatively small size, its speed—potentially nearing 40,000 miles per hour—could cause significant damage if it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere.

Possible Consequences of Impact

If the asteroid were to collide with Earth, experts suggest that an airburst is the most likely scenario. In this case, the asteroid could explode midair with the force equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. While this scenario remains the most probable, a smaller crater impact remains possible if the asteroid is closer to the upper size estimate.

Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society, emphasizes that the impact’s effects would likely be devastating, but not catastrophic on a global scale. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer,” said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) planetary defense office. “At most, it could be dangerous for a city.”

NASA’s Ongoing Monitoring Efforts

NASA and other global space agencies, including the ESA, have been actively monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory. Since the impact probability surpassed one percent, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued an initial warning on January 29, 2024. Though the risk fluctuates, it has been trending upward. The European Space Agency currently estimates the risk at 2.8%.

In March 2024, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will begin detailed observations of 2024 YR4 to refine its trajectory. This powerful telescope, capable of observing faint objects in deep space, will provide crucial data to help experts better predict the asteroid’s path. “Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim,” noted Betts.

Potential Impact Zones and Risk Factors

The potential impact locations identified by IAWN include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. While it is still too early to know for certain whether an impact will occur, experts assure that there is ample time to address the situation if necessary.

NASA has already demonstrated its ability to deflect asteroids with its successful DART mission in 2022. This mission altered the course of a non-threatening asteroid, showing that space agencies have the technology to intervene if needed.

A Watchful Eye, But No Immediate Danger

Despite the growing probability, experts continue to stress that there is no reason to panic. “This is not a crisis at this point in time,” said Moissl. The possibility of an asteroid impact remains uncertain, but with the combined efforts of global space agencies, including NASA and ESA, humanity is better equipped to deal with potential threats from space.

As the world watches and waits, experts continue to monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4’s path, ensuring that any necessary action is taken with ample time to mitigate any risk.